Beyond the Handshakes: What ICSC New York Revealed About Retail's Strategic Evolution

If you wanted to take the pulse of retail real estate heading into 2026, ICSC New York was the place to be last week. Our team spent two days at the Javits Center in conversations that revealed something important: this isn't a market in retreat—it's a market in strategic evolution.

The energy was palpable. Retailers had open buys. Grocers were actively hunting for locations. But here's the nuance: everyone wanted data to validate their moves before pulling the trigger.

Here is what we learned and what it means for retailers, landlords, municipalities and developers navigating 2026.

The "Open Buy" Phenomenon

Nearly every retailer we met with had expansion plans—not tentative interest, but actual open buys with specific market targets. The grocers were particularly aggressive, with operators across formats (conventional, specialty, discount) all seeking sites.

But here's the shift: these aren't the broad expansion rollouts of past cycles. Retailers are expanding with surgical precision, validating each location through predictive analytics before committing.

This creates an interesting dynamic. Retailers have demand ready to deploy, but they need confidence. That's where market intelligence becomes crucial—not just demographic data, but predictive modeling that forecasts actual performance.

Value Retail's Moment

Consumer behavior is writing one expansion playbook for 2026. With shoppers continuing in trade-down mode due to persistent economic pressures, value and discount retailers are having their moment. These retailers are thriving and expanding aggressively.

We saw this play out in real-time at ICSC. Value retailers weren't just taking meetings; they were driving conversations about multi-site deals and new market entries. For landlords, this presents both opportunity and challenge: how do you reposition your tenant mix to capture this demand while maintaining property positioning?

For municipalities, this trend offers a unique opportunity to attract retailers that serve community needs while generating tax revenue. Value grocers and discount retailers often fill critical gaps in underserved markets, providing essential goods at prices residents can afford. Smart economic development teams are targeting these expanding categories with data that demonstrates not just market opportunity, but community need.

The answer we're seeing involves strategic curation, bringing in value tenants that complement rather than compromise the overall tenant mix. It's about recognizing which categories will drive consistent traffic in 2026.

The Experience Imperative Has Arrived

Experiential tenant discussions were also very active. Many properties generating significant leasing interest have successfully integrated food & beverage, medical, wellness, and entertainment uses alongside traditional retail.

What struck us at ICSC was how this has shifted from aspiration to execution. Landlords weren't asking "should we add experience?" but rather "which experiences match our market?" The sophistication of these conversations signals a market that has moved beyond trend-following to strategic placemaking.

Our cross-segment work reveals something interesting here: many retailers expanding successfully are targeting properties with this experiential mix. They understand that being part of a destination drives performance more than standalone visibility.

Development Scarcity Creates Strategic Opportunities

With construction costs remaining elevated and new development constrained, existing properties and their repositioning potential become even more valuable. This scarcity dynamic showed up in two ways at ICSC:

First, retailers are competing more intensely for prime existing locations. When new development isn't an option, the best available spaces command premium attention.

Second, developers with projects in the pipeline are being extraordinarily selective. We're seeing increased demand for third-party validation before breaking ground. Our work with developers to provide opportunity intelligence prevented one client from pursuing an unviable grocery anchor, redirecting them toward better-aligned alternatives.

This constrained supply environment also rewards those who can see opportunity where others see challenges. Adaptive reuse, creative repositioning, and strategic renovation are becoming the paths to growth.

Municipalities: Opportunity Drivers

While retailers and landlords dominated the ICSC conversations, smart municipalities have a unique opportunity in this market dynamic. With retailers having open buys but requiring validation, cities that can provide retailer-ready data and demonstrate market potential stand to capture significant new investment.

We're seeing progressive municipalities succeed by focusing on three things: First, they're packaging their market data in formats retailers actually use for site selection. Second, they're identifying and addressing infrastructure or zoning barriers before retailers encounter them. Third, they're targeting categories that align with their community needs, particularly value retailers and grocers that residents want.

The municipalities winning retail investment in 2026 won't be those with the best marketing materials—they'll be those with the most credible, retailer-ready intelligence about their market opportunity.

Collaborative Deals

Perhaps the most significant evolution we observed was in deal structuring. The old model of fixed terms and rigid requirements is giving way to creative partnerships between landlords and tenants.

Progressive landlords are offering various forms of participation—rent support during ramp-up, TI contributions for emerging concepts, percentage rent structures that align interests. Retailers, particularly emerging brands, are responding with longer-term commitments and exclusive territory agreements.

What enables these creative structures? Data that both sides trust. When you can model probable performance with confidence, both parties become more flexible in how they structure the deal.

Three Strategies for 2026

Based on what we saw and heard at ICSC, here are strategies to consider:

For Retailers:

Move with confident precision. The market rewards those who combine expansion appetite with validation discipline. Speed up your intelligence gathering and interpretation so you can move decisively on the right opportunities.

For Landlords:

Reposition proactively, not reactively. The properties winning in 2026 will be those that anticipate retailer needs rather than responding to vacancy. Use data to understand which experiential mix and value proposition resonates in your specific trade area.

For Developers:

Validate before you excavate. In a constrained development environment, mistakes are costly. Third-party validation of retailer demand isn't just prudent—it's essential for securing capital and ensuring success.

For Municipalities:

Package your market like a retailer would. With retailers having open buys but needing validation, cities that can demonstrate their opportunity through retailer-ready data and analysis will capture investment that others miss. Focus on the categories your community needs—especially grocers and value retailers actively expanding.

The Intelligence + Execution Imperative

If ICSC New York made one thing clear, it's that success in 2026's retail real estate market requires a new level of intelligence. Not just data, but the ability to translate market signals into executable strategies and then to execute on them with excellence.

This is the market we're operating in now: one where precision beats volume, where quality beats quantity, and where intelligence beats intuition.

Looking Ahead

As we head into 2026, the opportunities are real and significant. Retailers want to expand. Landlords need the right tenants. Developers seek validation. Municipalities want retail investment that serves their communities. The market is active, but it's also sophisticated.

Success will belong to those who can navigate this sophistication—who can identify which of those retailer open buys match which available sites, which repositioning strategies will capture emerging demand, which development opportunities justify investment, and which markets can best tell their story to expanding retailers.

That's the kind of intelligence that turns market opportunity into executed transactions. And based on what we saw at ICSC, there's plenty of opportunity for those equipped to capture it.

Want to discuss what these ICSC insights mean for your 2026 strategy? Contact us to schedule a consultation.